Home Global Politics Working Mate: Tinubu’s albatross, By Azu Ishiekwene 

Working Mate: Tinubu’s albatross, By Azu Ishiekwene 

by Good News

Global Politics –

•Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, APC presidential candidate
That the All Progressives Congress (APC) flag bearer, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is exactly the do the birthday party’s closing presidential candidate President Muhammadu Buhari changed into as soon as when he purchased the stamp eight years ago, shows factual how our politics has stagnated, if no longer regressed.

After Buhari received the APC stamp in December 2014, the subsequent major hurdle changed into as soon as getting a running mate. In what perceived to be a breach of the working out he had with Tinubu to be his running mate before the election – and on the foundation of which Tinubu moved heaven and earth to beef up him – Buhari changed his thoughts at the closing minute.

He broke his promise, even before the electoral contest. After pocketing the stamp, Buhari quick Tinubu, with a heavy heart, that regardless of himself, he had been quick that a Muslim-Muslim stamp would be a catastrophe for the pair and the birthday party.

Tinubu didn’t agree, but the rest, as they are saying, is historic previous.

That historic previous is in replay no longer on legend of it changed into as soon as inevitable, but largely on legend of Buhari is leaving a legacy of division, intolerance and identification politics, the more or much less which has most efficient few comparisons in Nigeria’s contemporary historic previous. 

Let me be obvious. Buhari didn’t introduce identification politics into the country. Neither is identification politics a peculiarly Nigerian element. On his see within the closing seven years, on the other hand, ethnic and non secular politics fill taken on a salience and frequency hardly ever experienced before or even belief seemingly. 

It’s correct that the redefinition of apostasy by Boko Haram has infused a deadlier force in non secular attacks. Nonetheless it’s factual as attainable that Buhari’s tentativeness has been unhelpful.

Religiously motivated violence has grown from a handful of perfunctory incidents into a disclose of everlasting siege, claiming dozens of lives, namely in Kaduna, and sundering as soon as smooth neighbourhoods and communities. Christians, Muslims and these that are neither are hurting on legend of all were caught within the crossfire. The hot atrocity at Saint Francis Catholic Church, Owo, Ondo Narrate, which claimed at the least 40 lives and left many more injured, has extra bruised already quiet non secular sensitivities.

It’s miles on this fraught native climate, more subtle and fragile than it changed into as soon as when Buhari rejected Tinubu as running mate on non secular grounds, that Tinubu would want to purchase whether or no longer he maintains his arena of eight years ago that a Muslim-Muslim stamp after an outgoing Muslim president, restful doesn’t topic. On high of that, Tinubu is running in opposition to a Northern Muslim who, regardless of his shortcomings, would be vigorously promoted in conservative circles up country as “our have Muslim”. It’s a excessive topic.

I giggle at these that declare it’s a easy selection or that concerns about it are irrational. To clarify this arena, they even slip on a tour of Europe and the US for apples to review with Nigeria’s oranges. 

I mediate it’s gorgeous to declare that Nigeria is no longer what it changed into as soon as in 1979 when Obafemi Awolowo, a lawyer, chose but any other lawyer and Southerner, Philip Umeadi, as his running mate. Or in 1993 when MKO Abiola, a Muslim, picked Babagana Kingibe, a Muslim, as his running mate, and restful received the presidential election, later cancelled by the defense force authorities of Odd Ibrahim Babangida.

But, this contemporary jam could perchance furthermore be a turning point, an alternate for Tinubu to remark that out of the ashes of this moment, it’s miles attainable to make a future wherein citizens would be accurate and accurate, and wherein they would all fill a horny shot regardless of their non secular, ethnic or political identities. 

To enact this, on the other hand, he has to opt the election first. And to opt the election, Tinubu could perchance procure himself arguing, handle Deng Xiaoping, that white cat or shadowy cat, he needs a cat that could perchance eradicate mice. Nonetheless it’s an argument that could perchance – and could perchance – be made with a sensitivity that resists hubris.

The no longer easy reality, from Nigeria’s contemporary political maths, is that that Deng cat – one which could give the Of us’s Democratic Celebration (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, a hunch for the Presidency – is hardly ever within the Christian lair, North or South. 

I of direction wish that in a country tormented by very excessive complications of insecurity, poverty, mind drain, unemployment and broken infrastructure inflicted on us largely by persons who wear faith on their sleeves, that we are able to peer competence, ability and personality; that the search files from of would be, who’s the allege particular person for the job, and no longer if he or she is sporting faith on a vehicle bumper. We’re in bother.

A doc from a analysis agency, RMP for Dubai Expo 2020, showed that whereas Nigeria changed into as soon as one of the 10 high destinations in Africa for investment in 2014, 2d most efficient to South Africa, Nigeria disappeared from that list in 2021. Egypt, the original vacationer vacation arena of the political elite, has moved from sixth to first arena. Key metrics of neatly-being and grace fill deteriorated sharply.

But, we’ll want to play the playing cards we’re dealt. Emotions, journey and a raft of Nigeria’s notoriously expedient conventions win a Muslim-Muslim stamp no longer easy to peep right this moment. However the balloting files means that it’d be nothing immediate of political suicide for APC to purchase a Christian as Tinubu’s running mate. 

Tinubu didn’t come your entire way, so stop to “his flip”, most efficient to hold himself on a sectarian pole. If he will get it irascible – as he’s nearly sure to enact by deciding on a Christian running mate – the Christian Affiliation of Nigeria (CAN) and others urging that selection on him this day would be among the first responsible him. They could even mock him that he made others president, but himself he couldn’t win.

Clearly, this doesn’t furthermore mean that factual about any Muslim would guarantee APC victory. Three serving governors – Nasir el-Rufai (Kaduna), the ordinary polariser who maneuvered the 10 Northern governors to slip South for a presidential candidate; Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), one of earliest Tinubu cheerleaders; and Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), who has been praised for his feature in organising the APC major – were tipped as entrance runners. 

But so, too, has aged Borno Narrate Governor, Kashim Shettima, whose contemporary phenomenal defence of Tinubu has made him a man to see on the nationwide stage. As of Wednesday, birthday party insiders were indicating that Shettima is a sure guess, though he is from the North-East. Picking him would divide the vote in Atiku’s North-East mistaken and shift the fight to the North-West. Here, aged Kano Narrate Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso’s birthday party, the NNPP, could perchance furthermore be a disrupter, but the balloting pool is bigger.

APC governors, namely these from the zone, are urgent for one of their very have – a sitting governor. With the mutual acrimony and backstabbing among this clan, on the other hand, to no longer declare their person K-leg, controversial recognition and mixed story of efficiency, Tinubu would procure a ramification among North-West governors a mountain to climb.

Let’s return to files. In Nigeria’s complex statutory electoral gadget, to opt, a candidate no longer most efficient requires a quarter of the entire votes in 24 states, he furthermore has to win the wonderful selection of votes countrywide, making states with spacious voter bases the an necessary deciders. 

The Muslim-dominated North-West, with 20 million registered voters or 24 percent of the entire balloting population as of 2019, is the country’s largest vote bank. Consistent with Researchgate.salvage, Kano, Katsina and Jigawa (three of its main vote banks), fill over 80 percent Muslim population, the exception being Kaduna. 

In the closing six frequent election cycles, going assist to 1999, the allege efficiency of a Southern candidate within the North changed into as soon as 23 years ago, when two Southerners – Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae – were on the major ballot. But, Northern sympathy for the winner, Obasanjo, at the time changed into as soon as largely since the plan changed into as soon as the candidate’s political orphanage.

From 2003 when Buhari entered the presidential hunch and ran till he received the election on his fourth try in 2015, no Southern candidate had more Northern votes than he did; no longer even when he misplaced the election in his three previous makes an try.

In the original vice presidential hunch within the APC, other than Shettima who is from the North-East, the opposite contenders – El-Rufai, Ganduje, Bagudu and even leisurely entrants, Abubakar Malami and Hadi Sirika – are Muslims from the North-West.

Factual, it’s no longer the vp, but the president that’s on the ballot. In actuality, in a lamentation to his vital other, the first US Vice President, John Adams, described the arena as “the most insignificant office ever the invention of man contrived.” But in a hunch as tight because the subsequent one guarantees to be, the selection of a running mate could perchance win a incompatibility. 

And for Tinubu, factual out of a bitter and fractious major, what he does and the way, will vastly affect the APC’s harmony, namely with a protracted list of entitled heavyweights ready to complicate the birthday party’s grief, within the occasion that they lose out. 

But, it’s most efficient if he makes a winning selection that he can win a room within the tent for everyone, including the aggrieved.

•Ishiekwene is the Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP

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